NFL
In addition to tracking Wins, Losses and Ties, ChanceBot generates a unique set of statistics by simulating and rerunning the
remainder of the season millions of times. As the simulations run, the results
are tracked and tallied to generate statistics which summarize how each team
fared across all the simulations. These statistics are explained below.Note that all probabilities are shown as a percentage.
In addition to tracking Wins, Losses and Ties, ChanceBot generates a unique set of statistics by simulating and rerunning the remainder of the season millions of times. As the simulations run, the results are tracked and tallied to generate statistics which summarize how each team fared across all the simulations. These statistics are explained below.
PW - This value is the projected number of wins by a team, based on their wins to date, their Power Rating and their remaining schedule.
DV - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of winning their division.
WC - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of entering the playoffs as a wildcard.
PO - Chancebot's calculation of a team's total chance of making the playoffs (DV + WC).
CSF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the Conference Semi-Final (either through a bye or by winning a wild card playoff).
CF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the Conference Final.
LF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the League Final.
LC - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of winning the League Championship.
SV - This stat shows the average Seed Value achieved by a team. Seed Value is a measure of the inherent advantage or disadvantage of a particular seed due to the home-court advantage granted to higher seeds. By simulating the playoffs with evenly matched teams, we know how likely each seed is to win the conference championship simply on the basis of home-field advantage. The value of each seed has been calculated as follows:
1) 34.1
2) 28.4
3) 11.8
4) 10.1
5) 7.7
6) 7.2
What this means is that if all the teams in the playoffs were evenly matched, the one seed would have a 34.1 percent chance of winning the confrence championship.
Overall Seed Value is calculated relative to the value of a one seed. For instance, a team that has clinched the one seed will have a Seed Value of 100.
Power - Chancebot's Power Rating. Power Ratings are used in conjunction with historical information to calculate a team's chance of winning each game remaining on its schedule.
In addition to tracking Wins, Losses and Ties, ChanceBot generates a unique set of statistics by simulating and rerunning the remainder of the season millions of times. As the simulations run, the results are tracked and tallied to generate statistics which summarize how each team fared across all the simulations. These statistics are explained below.
PW - This value is the projected number of wins by a team, based on their wins to date, their Power Rating and their remaining schedule.
DV - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of winning their division.
WC - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of entering the playoffs as a wildcard.
PO - Chancebot's calculation of a team's total chance of making the playoffs (DV + WC).
CSF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the Conference Semi-Final (either through a bye or by winning a wild card playoff).
CF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the Conference Final.
LF - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of reaching the League Final.
LC - Chancebot's calculation of a team's chance of winning the League Championship.
SV - This stat shows the average Seed Value achieved by a team. Seed Value is a measure of the inherent advantage or disadvantage of a particular seed due to the home-court advantage granted to higher seeds. By simulating the playoffs with evenly matched teams, we know how likely each seed is to win the conference championship simply on the basis of home-field advantage. The value of each seed has been calculated as follows:
1) 34.1
2) 28.4
3) 11.8
4) 10.1
5) 7.7
6) 7.2
What this means is that if all the teams in the playoffs were evenly matched, the one seed would have a 34.1 percent chance of winning the confrence championship.
Overall Seed Value is calculated relative to the value of a one seed. For instance, a team that has clinched the one seed will have a Seed Value of 100.
Power - Chancebot's Power Rating. Power Ratings are used in conjunction with historical information to calculate a team's chance of winning each game remaining on its schedule.
| AFC | |||||||||||||
| AFC East | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| New England | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11.29 | 98.55 | 0.45 | 99.00 | 81.86 | 48.54 | 21.10 | 10.05 | 48.84 | -3.09 |
| New York Jets | 5 | 6 | 0 | 7.69 | 0.12 | 3.42 | 3.53 | 1.13 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.77 | -9.95 |
| Miami | 5 | 6 | 0 | 7.19 | 1.31 | 3.13 | 4.45 | 1.30 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1.07 | -12.60 |
| Buffalo | 4 | 7 | 0 | 5.52 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -16.55 |
| AFC North | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| Cincinnati | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10.97 | 88.38 | 8.31 | 96.70 | 63.26 | 21.86 | 5.93 | 1.86 | 41.64 | -8.81 |
| Baltimore | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9.68 | 6.96 | 62.77 | 69.73 | 32.87 | 10.12 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 16.30 | -5.89 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9.44 | 4.66 | 47.29 | 51.95 | 20.06 | 4.76 | 1.45 | 0.46 | 12.26 | -8.64 |
| Cleveland | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -23.88 |
| AFC South | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| Indianapolis | 11 | 0 | 0 | 15.31 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 77.94 | 56.79 | 30.92 | 99.98 | -0.63 |
| Jacksonville | 6 | 5 | 0 | 7.80 | 0.00 | 7.33 | 7.33 | 1.15 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.57 | -15.58 |
| Houston | 5 | 6 | 0 | 8.09 | 0.00 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 1.63 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 1.10 | -9.79 |
| Tennessee | 5 | 6 | 0 | 7.65 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 | -11.99 |
| AFC West | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| San Diego | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11.41 | 82.79 | 13.39 | 96.18 | 71.27 | 30.15 | 9.27 | 3.30 | 48.90 | -7.38 |
| Denver | 7 | 4 | 0 | 9.92 | 17.21 | 47.69 | 64.90 | 25.18 | 5.90 | 1.35 | 0.35 | 18.55 | -10.74 |
| Kansas City | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -20.31 |
| Oakland | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -21.24 |
| NFC | |||||||||||||
| NFC East | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| Dallas | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10.58 | 64.23 | 24.33 | 88.56 | 52.18 | 13.08 | 3.65 | 1.23 | 27.30 | -8.51 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 9.64 | 26.25 | 37.59 | 63.84 | 31.42 | 7.01 | 1.82 | 0.58 | 17.16 | -9.15 |
| New York Giants | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8.41 | 9.51 | 19.73 | 29.24 | 10.71 | 1.15 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 7.20 | -12.77 |
| Washington | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -19.10 |
| NFC North | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| Minnesota | 10 | 1 | 0 | 13.58 | 99.91 | 0.09 | 100.00 | 98.66 | 70.89 | 28.21 | 12.93 | 84.56 | -4.19 |
| Green Bay | 7 | 4 | 0 | 9.60 | 0.09 | 71.60 | 71.69 | 27.91 | 4.98 | 1.18 | 0.35 | 15.82 | -10.09 |
| Chicago | 4 | 7 | 0 | 6.35 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | -15.69 |
| Detroit | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -25.84 |
| NFC South | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| New Orleans | 10 | 0 | 0 | 14.99 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 99.93 | 85.03 | 60.66 | 34.95 | 95.73 | 0.00 |
| Atlanta | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8.68 | 0.00 | 30.83 | 30.83 | 11.07 | 1.68 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 6.71 | -10.97 |
| Carolina | 4 | 7 | 0 | 5.48 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -16.45 |
| Tampa Bay | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -22.62 |
| NFC West | W | L | T | PW | DV | WC | PO | CSF | CF | LF | LC | SV | Power |
| Arizona | 7 | 4 | 0 | 10.37 | 85.20 | 6.28 | 91.48 | 56.55 | 14.29 | 3.58 | 1.16 | 30.15 | -8.98 |
| San Francisco | 5 | 6 | 0 | 8.25 | 14.79 | 9.15 | 23.94 | 11.49 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 6.49 | -10.84 |
| Seattle | 4 | 7 | 0 | 5.93 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -17.72 |
| St. Louis | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -24.11 |
